En el programa "Estado de Situación", MPC Consultores hizo pública la última encuesta realizada, donde se consultó sobre la intención de voto en todo el país. En la misma, el Frente Amplio tendría un 34% de apoyo en todo el país, seguido por el Partido Nacional con el 32,6% y el Partido Colorado con un 13,3%.
La interna frenteamplista es dominada cómodamente por José Mujica con el 46% de los seguidores frenteamplistas contra un 33,6% de Danilo Astori.
En el Partido Nacional, Jorge Larrañaga cuenta con el apoyo del 47,6% de los nacionalistas, seguido por Luis Lacalle con un 29,3%, y un 18,3% de Carmelo Vidalín.
En el Partido Colorado, Pedro Bordaberry llega al 48% de las adhesiones, seguido por José Amorín con el 31% y Luis Hierro con el 12%. Al momento de realizada la encuesta aún no había lanzado su movimiento el Diputado Washington Abdala.
La empresa encuestadora también consultó la opinión de los uruguayos sobre la intención de voto en los cuatro escenarios más probables de ballotage.
De acuerdo a lo obtenido en la consulta, si el ballotage se definiera entre Larrañaga y Mujica, el líder blanco sería el próximo presidente con un 43% de apoyo contra el 37% del líder tupamaro, y un 20% no definen su respuesta.
Si el escenario fuera entre el Presidente del Directorio y el actual Ministro de Economía, Danilo Astori, ganaría el primero con el 44% contra el 31% del responsable del IRPF. Un 25% no definió su respuesta.
Los números mejoran sensiblemente para el Frente Amplio si en vez de Jorge Larrañaga el candidato del Partido Nacional fuera Luis Lacalle, lo que explica la notoria intención de los dirigentes del FA por elegir rival y posicionar a Lacalle como adversario.
En efecto, de acuerdo a la encuesta, si el ballotage fuera entre Luis Lacalle
y Danilo Astori, habría un empate con el 39% de adhesiones para ambos, lo que saca al Frente Amplio del seguro escenario de derrota que enfrentarían si el candidato nacionalista fuera Jorge Larrañaga.
y Danilo Astori, habría un empate con el 39% de adhesiones para ambos, lo que saca al Frente Amplio del seguro escenario de derrota que enfrentarían si el candidato nacionalista fuera Jorge Larrañaga.El escenario mejora aún más para el FA si el ballotage fuera entre Lacalle y Mujica. El candidato frenteamplista ganaría con un 43% de apoyo contra el 36% de Lacalle. Marenales lo tiene claro, por eso ha salido permanentemente en la prensa a decir que el adversario es Lacalle: es en el único escenario en el cual Mujica puede ser presidente.
Finalmente, la interna nacionalista en Canelones nos muestra un 49% de apoyo para Jorge Larrañaga contra un 25% de Luis Lacalle y un 18% de Carmelo Vidalín, lo que plantea que, en un escenario posible de seis bancas en Diputados para el Partido Nacional, tres serían de Alianza, dos del Herrerismo y otra de Viento Nuevo.
Sin embargo, debemos recordar la tendencia de los electores en octubre a votar las listas de candidato a la Presidencia, fenómeno observado tanto en la elección de 1999 como en la de 2004, lo que podría llevar a que, en caso de mantenerse las tendencias, Alianza podría llegar a cuatro o cinco bancas, el Herrerismo tendría una y Viento nuevo podría quedar sin representación parlamentaria en Canelones.
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